| Will Racist Voters Cost Obama the Presidency? | | | | According to political scientists, whenever a black |
| A few days ago I was asked to attend a debate | | | | candidate runs against a white candidate in state and |
| watch for the final faceoff between Barak Obama | | | | local elections, there is always the possibility of having |
| and John McCain. More specifically, I was being asked | | | | a "Bradley effect." Named after the former mayor of |
| to serve as a moderator for the discussion that was | | | | Los Angeles who ran for Governor and lost despite |
| to take place after the debate. In my effort to | | | | his lead in the polls, this effect posits that many white |
| generate questions I could ask to spur discussion, I had | | | | voters will express support for a black candidate |
| to think about some of the possible issues the | | | | when asked by a pollster only to vote against that |
| candidates might raise. One of the issues that many | | | | person on election day. After losing, it seemed as |
| political pundits are wondering about is the Obama | | | | though the polls overstated the amoung of support |
| connection to Ayers, a topic I have already addressed | | | | Bradley really had among white voters. |
| in another post. Another issue, and one that surprised | | | | Of course, I should also note that the race factor also |
| me in terms of how much coverage it was receiving, | | | | helps Obama with some voters. Although I would not |
| was the race factor. Could Obama lose the election | | | | call this a "reverse Bradley effect," it is certainly there. |
| because of racist voters? At first glance the answer | | | | How this will play out on election day makes me very |
| would seem to be no; Obama's lead in most polls has | | | | nervous. There is still a lot of time left in the election |
| him far enough ahead of McCain that the racist vote | | | | and anything can happen to make this a closer race, a |
| should not cost him the election. However, the | | | | race where the Bradley effect might matter. |
| numbers game is much more complicated. | | | | |